Dec 20, 2022
NFL Week 16 Preview: Picks, Predictions, and Against The Spread Bets
Our Expert's NFL Picks For Week 16
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-1 O/U 39.5)
Where to watch
Thursday, December 22nd, 8:10 PM EST at MetLife Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets
The Jets are coming off a tough loss to the Lions and the Jaguars stole one in overtime against the Cowboys. The Jets' will most likely start Zach Wilson again so don’t expect many points from that offense. The defense is the team’s bright spot and they will be facing the rapidly improving Trevor Lawrence. Since week 9, Trevor leads the league in passer rating, completion percentage, and touchdown to interception ratio.
Expert Pick:
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, O/U 47.5)
Where to watch
Saturday, December 24th, 1:05 PM EST at U.S. Bank Stadium
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
The Giants won in unimpressive fashion last week against the Commanders and now face a Vikings team that seemingly can’t lose. Late-game heroics have characterized the Vikings' season week by week as they keep the magic rolling. The Giants have the better defense, Vikings have the better offense and the home-field advantage. It looks like another win and cover by the Vikings.
Expert Pick:
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7, O/U 38)
Where to watch
Saturday, December 24th, 1:05 PM EST at Nissan Stadium
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Texans have seen back-to-back games that should have been wins turn into losses, against two great teams (Cowboys and Chiefs). Now they face a Titans team that is trending downward, but they still have a shot at the playoffs because their division is so bad. If Ryan Tannehill is in at quarterback and if Derrick Henry is in then they should be able to get it done against Houston. Do the Texans have another one in them? They are probably exhausted by now.
Expert Pick:
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, O/U 49)
Where to watch
Saturday, December 24th, 1:05 PM EST at Arrowhead Stadium
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs barely get a win in overtime against the Texans last week. The Seahawks have been slightly slumping since their hot start to the season. Quarterback Geno Smith is regressing back to the mean and his flaws are starting to show. He’s much better with a solid running game and if Kenneth Walker is in the lineup he can hurt KC on defense. The Chiefs shouldn’t have any problem with this one as they go back to Arrowhead where they are (record with Mahomes) at home.
Expert Pick:
Kansas City Chiefs team total over 29.5 points
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7, O/U 37.5)
Where to watch
Saturday, December 24th, 1:05 PM EST at M&T Bank Stadium
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens
The Falcons have benched Marcus Mariotta in order to see what they have in their rookie QB, Desmond Ritter. The Ravens are watching their playoff hopes slip as the year goes on. Neither teams have a great defense but both teams are struggling to move the ball and score on offense. Considering the Falcons and Ravens are starting their backups, points might be rare.
Expert Pick:
Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens under 37.5 points
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (+9, O/U 41)
Where to watch
Saturday, December 24th, 1:05 PM EST at Soldier Field
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears
Buffalo’s D-line has stepped up, even without Von Miller. The Bears traditionally always have a stout run defense, but Josh Allen has the ability to score points at will. Depending on the weather this could be low scoring, as of now the temperatures are supposed to be below freezing at kickoff. Fields could keep it close if he is able to break away for some long runs. The Bears have given up 25 points or more in their last 7 games. Even with the cold temperatures, the Bills should be able to pull away.
Expert Pick:
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+3.5, O/U 39.5)
Where to watch
Saturday, December 24th, 1:05 PM EST at Gillette Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots
The Patriots are coming off their most humiliating loss of the season, and now the offensive staff has only 5 days to come up with a way to beat the Bengals. How will they respond? The Pats are still looking to sneak into the playoffs but the Bengals should be able to move the ball on the ground and in the air if they have all their weapons available. Both teams are heading in the opposite direction, the Bengals are one of the hottest teams right now.
Expert Pick:
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, O/U 44.5)
Where to watch
Saturday, December 24th, 1:05 PM EST at Bank of America Stadium
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Both teams still have an outside shot of making the playoffs so expect to see some fight. The Lion’s offense has been on fire and they faced one of the toughest defenses in the league last week and persevered. Look for more of the same here. The Lions' defense isn’t great but they have been improving every week and should be able to handle Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers, who are capable, but limited.
Expert Pick:
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-3, O/U 32.5)
Where to watch
Saturday, December 24th, 1:05 PM EST at FirstEnergy Stadium
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns
This game features the lowest total on the board with only 32.5 points. Where does the scoring come from in this one? Deshaun Watson is still trying to piece things together for the Browns' offense meanwhile, the Saints have only given up 68 points in the past 4 games (an average of 17 per game). The Browns were only able to score 13 against Baltimore last week. The Brown's offense might have another tough week ahead of them.
Expert Pick:
Cleveland Browns team total under 18.5 points
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7, O/U 39.5)
Where to watch
Saturday, December 24th, 4:10 PM EST at Levi Stadium
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
The Commanders travel to the west coast for an early afternoon west coast game. The 49ers have shut down everyone’s offense and the likelihood that Washington outscores the 49ers is low. The 49ers have been improving every week with young rookie QB Brock Purdy at the helm. They will be without star receiver Deebo Samuel but still have enough talent on offense to consistently move the ball down the field and score. Look for the 49ers to dominate the time of possession and be able to methodically move the ball downfield.
Expert Pick:
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3, O/U 50.5)
Where to watch
Saturday, December 24th, 4:30 PM EST at AT&T Stadium
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
The last time these two teams met, the Cowboys were without Dak Prescott and were with Cooper Rush at quarterback. Both teams are playing well and are battling it out for the top spot in the NFC East. This is an important game for both squads. The Eagles seem to be more dynamic on offense but not by a wide margin. Dallas has stars on offense and their defense is led by the likely Defensive Player of the Year award winner, Micah Parsons. The Eagles O-line is incredible, the best in the game. It's just a clash of two great teams that both have something to fight for. Should be an interesting game. (Dak has 7 picks in the last 4 games). *Jaylen Hurts (Eagles' QB) is questionable to play.
Expert Pick:
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, O/U 39.5)
Where to watch
Saturday, December 24th, 8:20 PM EST at Acrisure Stadium
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers
Las Vegas is off a thrilling last-second win at home and now travels to Pittsburgh as underdogs to face the Steelers. While the Raiders don’t have many wins, they have been their own worst enemy this year. The Raiders have the better QB and better talent on offense. The Steelers have the better defense but an offense that struggles to move the ball. Pittsburgh is out of the playoffs but will still be scrapping to get a win for head coach Mike Tomlin who is trying to keep his streak of never having a losing season in his 14 years as coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Unfortunately for them, it may not be enough.
Expert Pick:
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (-4.5, O/U 46.5)
Where to watch
Sunday, December 25th, 1:05 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins
The Packers will be on a short week after their at home win at Lambeau Field. The Dolphins are desperate for a win after dropping three straight games on the road. Can their defense limit Christian Watson and the Packers’d running attack? Look for Mike McDaniels to scheme up some easier passes for Tua to get going early so he can get his confidence back. This Miami offense has all the skill, but they need to get back on track. Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ offense combined with Aaron Rodgers equals points being scored down in Miami on Christmas.
Expert Pick:
Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins over 46.5 points
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams (+1, O/U 35.5)
Where to watch
Sunday, December 25th, 4:35 PM at SoFi Stadium
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams
Broncos went with Brett Rypien last week and actually got a win, while Wilson was on the bench with a concussion. Russel’s season has been terrible and the coaching staff already said they will go back to him if he’s able to clear concussion protocol this week. Both these teams are bad, and are struggling in all phases of the game. Rams will be at home but there will most likely be more Broncos fans at the game. Neither team is worth backing so the under is the play.
Expert Pick:
Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams under 35.5 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5, O/U 41.5)
Where to watch
Sunday, December 25th, 8:25 PM at State Farm Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are an absolute mess and the Buccaneers don’t seem much better, yet they are still somehow in the lead of their division. If Tampa Bay can pull it together and win the last few games, they can make the playoffs. The Cardinals are down to their third-string quarterback and going against Tom Brady. The last time a 3rd stringer made a start against Brady he won, but this QB isn’t Brock Purdy and this team isn’t the 49ers. The Cardinals will be fighting an uphill battle. It’s hard to bet on Tom Brady right now but it's a better option than the Cardinals.
Expert Pick:
Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (+4, O/U 47)
Where to watch
Monday, December 26th, 8:20 PM at Lucas Oil Stadium
Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
The Chargers are starting to figure it out and the Colts are continuing their nightmare season. How will the morale be after watching a 33 point lead vanish? This has to be an all-time low for the Colts’ franchise. Now they have another primetime game to showcase just how bad they are. The Chargers have won 3 of their last 4 games and are looking more stable on both sides of the ball. Head coach Brandon Staley is aggressive and should be able to take advantage of the Colt’s defense. Austin Ekeler was on the sidelines for the Chargers last week so check the injury report before wagering.
Expert Pick:
All odds provided by the William Hill Sportsbook
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